Harvard Kennedy School faculty disseminate their research in working publications and papers that contribute to public knowledge and fuel policy innovation. This list features recent faculty publications, including journal articles, books, edited volumes, research papers, and public testimony.

Faculty Publications

Stock, James H., and Matthew Zaragoza-Watkins. "The Market and Climate Implications of U.S. LNG Exports." NBER Working Paper Series, March 2024.
Kevin Rennert, Frank Errickson, Brian C. Prest, Lisa Rennels, Richard G. Newell, William Pizer, Cora Kingdon, Jordan Wingenroth, Roger Cooke, Bryan Parthum, David Smith, Kevin Cromar, Delavane Diaz, Frances C. Moore, Ulrich K. Müller, Richard J. Plevin, Adrian E. Raftery, Hana Ševcíková, Hannah Sheets, James H. Stock, Tammy Tan, Mark Watson, Tony E. Wong, and David Anthoff. "Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2." Nature 610 (2022): 687-692.
Müller, Ulrich K., James H. Stock, and Mark W. Watson. "An Econometric Model of International Growth Dynamics for Long-Horizon Forecasting." The Review of Economics and Statistics 104.5 (September 2022): 857-876.
Lewis, Daniel J., Karel Mertens, James H. Stock, and Mihir Trivedi. "Measuring real activity using a weekly economic index." Journal of Applied Econometrics 37.4 (June/July 2022): 667-687.
Aldy, Joseph, Matthew Kotchen, Robert N. Stavins, and James H. Stock. "Keep Climate Policy Focused on the Social Cost of Carbon." Science 373.6557 (August 2021): 850-852.
Aldy, Joseph, Matthew L. Kotchen, Robert N. Stavins, and James H. Stock. "Keep Climate Policy Focused on the Social Cost of Carbon." Science 373.6557 (2021): 850-852.
Stock, James H., and Mark W. Watson. "Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation." Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 52.S2 (December 2020): 393-428.
Atkeson, Andrew, Michael C. Droste, Michael Mina, and James H. Stock. "Economic Benefits of COVID-19 Screening Tests." National Bureau of Economic Research, November 2020.
Metcalf, Gilbert E., and James H. Stock. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Europe’s Carbon Taxes." National Bureau of Economic Research, July 2020.
Aspelund, Karl M., Michael C. Droste, James H. Stock, and Christopher D. Walker. "Identification and Estimation of Undetected COVID-19 Cases Using Testing Data from Iceland." National Bureau of Economic Research, July 2020.
Aspelund, Karl M., Michael Droste, James H. Stock, and Christopher D. Walker. "Identification and Estimation of Undetected COVID-19 Cases Using Testing Data from Iceland." June 2020.
Baqaee, David, Emmanuel Farhi, Michael Mina, and James H. Stock. "Policies for a Second Wave." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, June 2020.
Stock, James H. "Reopening the Coronavirus-Closed Economy." Hutchins Center, 2020.
Coglianese, John, Todd D. Gerarden, and James H. Stock. "The Effects of Fuel Prices, Environmental Regulations, and Other Factors on US Coal Production, 2008-2016." The Energy Journal 41.1 (June 2020).
Irwin, Scott H., Kristen McCormack, and James H. Stock. "The Price of Biodiesel RINs and Economic Fundamentals." American Journal of Agricultural Economics 102.3 (May 2020): 734-752.
Baqaee, David, Emmanuel Farhi, Michael J. Mina, and James H. Stock. "Reopening Scenarios." National Bureau of Economic Research, May 2020.
Metcalf, Gilbert E., and James H. Stock. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Carbon Taxes." AEA Papers and Proceedings 10 (May 2020): 101-106.
Lewis, Daniel, Karel Mertens, and James H. Stock. "US Economic Activity During the Early Weeks of the SARS-Cov-2 Outbreak." National Bureau of Economic Research, April 2020.
Lewis, Daniel J., Karel Mertens, James H. Stock, and Mihir Trivedi. "Measuring Real Activity Using a Weekly Economic Index." Federal Reserve Bank of New York, April 2020.
Stock, James H. "Data Gaps and the Policy Response to the Novel Coronavirus." National Bureau of Economic Research, March 2020.
Eberly, Janice C., James H. Stock, and Jonathan H. Wright. "Reopening the Coronavirus-Closed Economy." International Journal of Central Banking 16.1 (February 2020): 5-71.
Gerarden, Todd D., W. Spencer Reeder, and James H. Stock. "Federal Coal Program Reform, the Clean Power Plan, and the Interaction of Upstream and Downstream Climate Policies." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 12.1 (February 2020): 167-199.
Montamat, Giselle, and James H. Stock. "Quasi-Experimental Estimates of the Transient Climate Response Using Observational Data." Climatic Change (2020): 1-11.
Stock, James H. "Climate Change, Climate Policy, and Economic Growth." NBER Macroeconomics Annual 34.1 (January 2020): 399-419.
Li, Jing, and James H. Stock. "Cost Pass-Through to Higher Ethanol Blends at the Pump: Evidence from Minnesota Gas Station Data." Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 93 (January 2019): 1-19.
Irwin, Scott H., Kristen McCormack, and James H. Stock. "The Price of Biodiesel RINs and Economic Fundamentals." HKS Faculty Research Working Paper Series, December 2018.
Lazarus, Eben, Daniel J. Lewis, James H. Stock, and Mark W. Watson. "HAR Inference: Recommendations for Practice." Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 36.4 (October 2018): 541-559.
Stock, James H., and Mark W. Watson. "Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments." The Economic Journal 128.610 (May 2018): 917-948.
Stock, James H., and Mark W. Watson. Introduction to Econometrics. Addison, 2003.
Stock, James H. "How Did Leading Indicator Forecasts Perform During the 2001 Recession?" Economic Quarterly 89.3 (Summer 2003).
Stock, James H., and Robert A. Kaufmann. "Testing Hypotheses about Mechanisms for the Unknown Carbon Sink: A Time Series Analysis." Global Biogeochemical Cycles 17 (2003).
Stock, James H., and Mark W. Watson. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices." Journal of Economic Literature 41 (2003): 788-829.
Stock, James H., and Francesco Trebbi. "Who Invented Instrumental Variable Regression?" Journal of Economic Perspectives 17 (2003): 177-194.
Stock, James H., and Mark W. Watson. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors." Journal of the American Statistical Association 97.460 (December 1, 2002): 1167-1179.
Stock, James H., and Mark W. Watson. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?" NBER Working Paper Series 9127, September 2002.
Stock, James H., and Mark W. Watson. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes." Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20.2 (2002): 147-162.
Stock, James H. "Macro-econometrics." Journal of Econometrics 100.1 (2001): 29-32.
Stock, James H., and Mark W. Watson. "Vector Autoregressions." Journal of Economic Perspectives 15 (Fall 2001): 101-116.
Stock, James H., and Graham Elliot. "Confidence Intervals for Autoregressive Coefficients Near One." Journal of Econometrics 102 (2001): 155-181.
Stock, James H. "Forecasting Economic Time Series." Companion in Theoretical Econometrics. Ed. B. Baltagi. Basil Blackwell, 2001, 562-584.
Stock, James H. "Time Series: Economic Forecasting." International Encyclopedia of the Social and Behavioral Sciences. .Elsevier Science, 2001.
Stock, James H. "Instrumental Variables in Economics and Statistics." International Encyclopedia of the Social and Behavioral Sciences. .Elsevier Science, 2001.
Stock, James H., and Motohiro Yogo. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression." Working Paper, 2001.
Stock, James H., and Mark W. Watson. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices." NBER Working Paper 8180, 2001.
Stock, James H. Discussion of "Evolving Post-World War II Inflation Dynamics," by Cogley and Sargent. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2001.
Stock, James H. Comment on Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting, by Glenn Rudebusch and Lars E.O. Svensson. Monetary Policy Rules, 1999: 253-262.